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It allows Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. It directs revenues to regulatory costs, homelessness programs, and nonparticipating tribes. Some revenues would support state regulatory costs, possibly reaching the mid-tens of millions of dollars annually. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 27? Initiative Statute. It allocates tax revenues to zero-emission vehicle purchase incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 30? Do you agree or disagree with these statements? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Joe Biden is handling his job as president? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Padilla is handling his job as US Senator? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as US Senator?
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
How satisfied are you with the way democracy is working in the United States? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not too satisfied, or not at all satisfied? These days, do you feel [rotate]  optimistic [or]  pessimistic that Americans of different political views can still come together and work out their differences? What is your opinion with regard to race relations in the United States today?
Would you say things are [rotate 1 and 2]  better ,  worse , or about the same than they were a year ago? When it comes to racial discrimination, which do you think is the bigger problem for the country today—[rotate]  People seeing racial discrimination where it really does NOT exist [or]  People NOT seeing racial discrimination where it really DOES exist? Next, Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom].
Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? Mark Baldassare is president and CEO of the Public Policy Institute of California, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy.
He is a leading expert on public opinion and survey methodology, and has directed the PPIC Statewide Survey since He is an authority on elections, voter behavior, and political and fiscal reform, and the author of ten books and numerous publications. Before joining PPIC, he was a professor of urban and regional planning in the School of Social Ecology at the University of California, Irvine, where he held the Johnson Chair in Civic Governance. He has conducted surveys for the Los Angeles Times , the San Francisco Chronicle , and the California Business Roundtable.
He holds a PhD in sociology from the University of California, Berkeley. Dean Bonner is associate survey director and research fellow at PPIC, where he coauthors the PPIC Statewide Survey—a large-scale public opinion project designed to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political attitudes at work in California elections and policymaking.
He has expertise in public opinion and survey research, political attitudes and participation, and voting behavior. Before joining PPIC, he taught political science at Tulane University and was a research associate at the University of New Orleans Survey Research Center.
He holds a PhD and MA in political science from the University of New Orleans. Rachel Lawler is a survey analyst at the Public Policy Institute of California, where she works with the statewide survey team. In that role, she led and contributed to a variety of quantitative and qualitative studies for both government and corporate clients.
She holds an MA in American politics and foreign policy from the University College Dublin and a BA in political science from Chapman University. Deja Thomas is a survey analyst at the Public Policy Institute of California, where she works with the statewide survey team. Prior to joining PPIC, she was a research assistant with the social and demographic trends team at the Pew Research Center. In that role, she contributed to a variety of national quantitative and qualitative survey studies.
She holds a BA in psychology from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa. This survey was supported with funding from the Arjay and Frances F. Ruben Barrales Senior Vice President, External Relations Wells Fargo.
Mollyann Brodie Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University. Jon Cohen Chief Research Officer and Senior Vice President, Strategic Partnerships and Business Development Momentive-AI.
Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell. Lisa García Bedolla Vice Provost for Graduate Studies and Dean of the Graduate Division University of California, Berkeley.
Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley. Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California. Carol S. Larson President Emeritus The David and Lucile Packard Foundation. Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company. Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment. Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento. Helen Iris Torres CEO Hispanas Organized for Political Equality.
David C. Wilson, PhD Dean and Professor Richard and Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy University of California, Berkeley. Chet Hewitt, Chair President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation. Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California. Ophelia Basgal Affiliate Terner Center for Housing Innovation University of California, Berkeley.
Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust. Sandra Celedon President and CEO Fresno Building Healthy Communities. Marisa Chun Judge, Superior Court of California, County of San Francisco. Steven A. Leon E. Panetta Chairman The Panetta Institute for Public Policy. Cassandra Walker Pye President Lucas Public Affairs. Gaddi H. Vasquez Retired Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison.
The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office.
Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Load video. Always unblock YouTube. io is one of the newer brokerages in the industry. While it was founded in , it has managed to gain popularity quickly. The company is a trademark of Seychelles-based Awesomo Ltd, which the IFMRRC regulates.
These signals can benefit new traders as they build their analysis skills and try to make money. Seasoned traders also use signals to determine the best binary options trade they can make. Another advantage of using Quotex is that it offers potent copy trading features.
As a result, customers can find the best traders on the platform and replicate their portfolios in just one click. The neatly designed interface displays a list of the top 20 traders, and users can pick one to replicate without any hassle.
You will also find market signals and analyst recommendations on the terminal, which can help you navigate markets with greater ease. Besides offering a user-friendly interface, Quotex gives users access to various digital options to trade. The platform offers over options , giving you access to 27 currency pairs, making it one of the more versatile binary options forex brokers. You can also trade binary options on cryptocurrencies, commodities , and indices on Quotex.
Of course, the fee varies from trade to trade, but it is typically low. You can use Quotex on your computer and also on Android phones by installing the application. Pocket Option is a relatively new brokerage that emerged in the industry in Owned by Gembell Limited, based in the Marshall Islands, the broker is regulated by the IFMRRC.
The excellent array of features and the reassurance of proper regulation make it the go-to broker for many binary options traders in the USA. In addition, you should have no problem funding your account since the broker provides several payment methods. Note that you cannot withdraw from your account before you make a trade. Most trades use the web browser version of Pocket Option. However, desktop, Android, and iOS applications are available to make binary trading more convenient.
Pocket Option offers additional features such as social trading, tournaments, and achievements. Social trading enables you to study the trading habits of successful traders on the platform and pick up their skills. You can also compete with other trades to win prizes. The platform rewards you for reaching certain milestones.
Using the platform consistently will give you perks like higher payouts and bonus trading funds to improve your trading experience. The s ignals and indicators on the platform make it easier for you to navigate markets and make sensible trades.
If you prefer signing up with a brokerage that has established itself as trustworthy, IQ Option may be the right broker for you. The brokerage charges competitive fees and makes trading binary options fast and easy. IQ Option boasts an award-winning trading platform that comes loaded with several useful trading tools. It has everything from economic calendars and stock screeners to historical quotes and volatility alerts.
In addition, the platform is available in 13 languages, making it that much easier to use. The broker allows binary options trading on a variety of assets. With an IQ Option account, you can trade binaries on forex markets , stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs. Digital options and indices are also available. FX Options make IQ Option one of the best binary forex brokers you can sign up with. Traders can trade on to go by installing the IQ Option app on their phones.
It features the same proprietary interface and comes with all of the tools like the browser version of the platform.
One of the best things about IQ Option is its complete transparency with its fees. Except for cryptocurrencies 2. If you hold a position overnight, you will need to pay between 0.
The excellent customer support and free demo account make it the go-to trading platform for many. Competing against other traders can be an excellent way to learn trading techniques and understand how markets work.
It was established by St. Vincent-based Dolphin Corp in and has garnered a user base of over , traders worldwide. Being one of the most popular brokerages in South Asia, Brazil, and Turkey , the platform facilitates over 30 million trades every week.
Binomo is one of the most secure and leading binary options brokers you can sign up with. Besides making trading easy, the proprietary trading platform encrypts all user data using SSL.
In addition, there are regular audits of the platform by third-party company VerifyMyTrade , ensuring the integrity of user funds data. Regular audits, regulations, and certifications are indicators of reliability in brokers. The interface has more than 20 graphical tools , enables the use of hotkeys, and also has an economic calendar that facilitates informed trades. The company offers many account levels, each with unique requirements and perks. Traders with Gold and VIP accounts get additional perks when they win tournaments.
Expert Option boasts an interface that strikes the right balance between ease of use and utility. It is the right platform for novice and seasoned binary options traders alike. The broker has served traders since , and since it is established in Vanuatu, it is regulated by the VFSC. One of the best things about Expert Option is that it has both mobile and desktop apps. So you can trade binary options conveniently wherever you are using either the binary options apps or the browser version.
The more you deposit, the more you can trade. You can trade with your friends and also see what successful traders and investing in. The several technical analysis tools, four chart types, and many indicators and trendlines help you make sense of price movements and make sensible trades.
Expert Option offers many trading education resources to help traders of all skill levels learn and grow. You will find everything from video tutorials and online webinars to daily market analysis and updates on Expert Option. However, it is important to note that it does not cater to traders in the USA, Canada, Australia, and many other countries. Regent Markets Group initially founded BetOnMarkets. com in to facilitate easy online trading. In , the platform was rebranded to Binary.
com , which is now a well-known brokerage in the industry. To express their renewed commitment to making binary options trading as accessible and easy as possible, Regent Markets Group recently rebranded Binary. com to Deriv. Over two decades, the platform has evolved and now offers enhanced features, new trade types, and several added charting applications. Deriv makes a solid first impression on traders since four different authorities regulate it.
The regulatory oversight makes it stand out as a reliable brokerage. Traders can leverage up to and carry out forex trading and CFD trading besides binary options trading. The four different trading platforms are offered to enable traders to trade to their strengths and get the trading experience they want. The trading platforms are:. With over 25, traders using the platform every day, Olymp Trade is one of the most popular brokerages out there.
While it is most popular in South Asia, its headquarters are in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The brokerage has been operating since and is regulated by the IFC.
You can trade from your Mac or Windows computer using the web browser or installing dedicated applications. Olymp Trade also enables trading on the move with its mobile applications. In addition, if you do not use your account for consecutive days, you may need to pay a subscription fee depending on your account type. Further, accounts with insufficient funds are automatically closed.
The broker charges a per-trade fee for forex trades. The fees vary according to the amount, leverage, and market conditions. More importantly, you must note that the broker offers variable leverage for different types of trades.
While the website may display attractive leverages of , for most popular currency pairs, you will only get a leverage of BinaryCent has established itself as a trustworthy brokerage in its four years in the industry.
The brokerage is owned by Finance Group Corp and managed by Cent Projects Ltd. It was founded in Vanuatu in , and besides offering binary options trading, BinaryCent also enables forex and CFD trading.
Expiry times can be as short as 60 seconds, and you can place a trade with as little as 10 cents. In addition to stocks, commodities, and forex pairs, BinaryCent also allows trading binary options on cryptocurrencies. Depending on your trading style, you can choose to trade assets with turbo, intraday, or long-term strategies. You can use either the browser platform or the mobile application to trade using BinaryCent. You can download the mobile application from the Google Play Store or the Apple App Store.
call is worth exactly one unit. The price of a cash-or-nothing American binary put resp. The above follows immediately from expressions for the Laplace transform of the distribution of the conditional first passage time of Brownian motion to a particular level. Similarly, paying out 1 unit of the foreign currency if the spot at maturity is above or below the strike is exactly like an asset-or nothing call and put respectively.
The Black—Scholes model relies on symmetry of distribution and ignores the skewness of the distribution of the asset. The skew matters because it affects the binary considerably more than the regular options.
A binary call option is, at long expirations, similar to a tight call spread using two vanilla options. Thus, the value of a binary call is the negative of the derivative of the price of a vanilla call with respect to strike price:. Skew is typically negative, so the value of a binary call is higher when taking skew into account.
Since a binary call is a mathematical derivative of a vanilla call with respect to strike, the price of a binary call has the same shape as the delta of a vanilla call, and the delta of a binary call has the same shape as the gamma of a vanilla call. Many binary option "brokers" have been exposed as fraudulent operations. Manipulation of price data to cause customers to lose is common.
Withdrawals are regularly stalled or refused by such operations; if a client has good reason to expect a payment, the operator will simply stop taking their phone calls.
On 23 March , The European Securities and Markets Authority , a European Union financial regulatory institution and European Supervisory Authority located in Paris, agreed to new temporary rules prohibiting the marketing, distribution or sale of binary options to retail clients.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission ASIC warned Australian investors on 13 February against Opteck, an unlicensed binary option provider. In August , Belgium's Financial Services and Markets Authority banned binary options schemes, based on concerns about widespread fraud. No firms are registered in Canada to offer or sell binary options, so no binary options trading is currently allowed. Provincial regulators have proposed a complete ban on all binary options trading include a ban on online advertising for binary options trading sites.
On May 3, , the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission CySEC announced a policy change regarding the classification of binary options as financial instruments. The effect is that binary options platforms operating in Cyprus, where many of the platforms are now based, would have to be CySEC regulated within six months of the date of the announcement.
CySEC was the first EU MiFID -member regulator to treat binary options as financial instruments. In , CySEC prevailed over the disreputable binary options brokers and communicated intensively with traders in order to prevent the risks of using unregulated financial services. On September 19, , CySEC sent out a press release warning investors against binary options broker TraderXP, who was not and had never been licensed by CySEC.
CySEC also temporarily suspended the license of the Cedar Finance on December 19, , because the potential violations referenced appeared to seriously endanger the interests of the company's customers and the proper functioning of capital markets, as described in the official issued press release. CySEC also issued a warning against binary option broker PlanetOption at the end of the year and another warning against binary option broker LBinary on January 10, , pointing out that it was not regulated by the Commission and the Commission had not received any notification by any of its counterparts in other European countries to the effect of this firm being a regulated provider.
OptionBravo and ChargeXP were also financially penalized. CySEC also indicated that it had voted to reject the ShortOption license application.
In , CySEC repeatedly fined Banc De Binary for several violations including the solicitation of U. In August , France's Sapin II bill on transparency was announced by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers AMF , seeking to outlaw all financial derivatives advertising.
The AMF stated that it would ban the advertising of certain highly speculative and risky financial contracts to private individuals by electronic means.
The French regulator is determined to cooperate with the legal authorities to have illegal websites blocked. This ban was seen by industry watchers as having an impact on sponsored sports such as European football clubs.
The Cyprus-based company 24Option  was banned from trading in France by AMF earlier in German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority BaFin has been regularly publishing investor warnings. On November 29, , BaFin announced that it is planning to "prohibit the marketing, distribution and sale of binary options to retail clients at a national level".
According to the Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Agency CoFTRA in Indonesia, also known as BAPPEBTI, binary options are considered a form of online gambling and is illegal in the country. The move to delegalize binary options stems from concerns that the public may be swayed by misleading advertisements, promotions, and offers to participate in fraudulent practices that operate under the guise of binary options trading.
In March binary options trading within Israel was banned by the Israel Securities Authority , on the grounds that such trading is essentially gambling and not a form of investment management.
The ban was extended to overseas clients as well in October In The Times of Israel ran several articles on binary options fraud. In July the Israeli binary option firms Vault Options and Global Trader were ordered by the U. The companies were also banned permanently from operating in the United States or selling to U.
In November the Israel Securities Authority carried out a raid on the Ramat Gan offices of binary option broker iTrader. The CEO and six other employees were charged with fraud, providing unlicensed investment advice, and obstruction of justice.
On May 15, , Eliran Saada, the owner of Express Target Marketing , which has operated the binary options companies InsideOption and SecuredOptions, was arrested on suspicion of fraud, false accounting, forgery, extortion , and blackmail.
In August Israeli police superintendent Rafi Biton said that the binary trading industry had "turned into a monster". He told the Israeli Knesset that criminal investigations had begun. In September , the FBI arrested Lee Elbaz, CEO of binary options trading company Yukom Communications, upon her arrival in the United States.
They arrested her for wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud. In February , the FBI arrested Austin Smith, Founder of Wealth Recovery International, after his arrival in the United States. Smith was arrested for wire fraud due to his involvement as an employee of Binarybook. In March the Malta Financial Services Authority MFSA announced that binary options regulation would be transferred away from Malta's Lottery and Gaming Authority. This required providers to obtain a category 3 Investment Services license and conform to MiFID's minimum capital requirements ; firms could previously operate from the jurisdiction with a valid Lottery and Gaming Authority license.
In April , New Zealand 's Financial Markets Authority FMA announced that all brokers that offer short-term investment instruments that settle within three days are required to obtain a license from the agency. In the UK, binary options were regulated by the Gambling Commission rather than the Financial Conduct Authority FCA. They stated that binary options "did not appear to meet a genuine investment need".
The Isle of Man , a self-governing Crown dependency for which the UK is responsible, has issued licenses to companies offering binary options as "games of skill" licensed and regulated under fixed odds betting by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission GSC.
On October 19, , London police raided 20 binary options firms in London. Fraud within the market is rife, with many binary options providers using the names of famous and respectable people without their knowledge. The City of London police in May said that reported losses for the previous financial year were £13 million, increased from £2 million the year before.
In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission SEC approved exchange-traded binary options in AMEX now NYSE American offers binary options on some exchange-traded funds and a few highly liquid equities such as Citigroup and Google. On the exchange binary options were called "fixed return options" FROs. To reduce the threat of market manipulation of single stocks, FROs use a "settlement index" defined as a volume-weighted average of trades on the expiration day.
AMEX and Donato A. Montanaro submitted a patent application for exchange-listed binary options using a volume-weighted settlement index in NADEX , a U.
They do not participate in the trades. On June 6, , the U. CFTC and the SEC jointly issued an Investor Alert to warn about fraudulent promotional schemes involving binary options and binary options trading platforms. The two agencies said that they had received numerous complaints of fraud about binary options trading sites, "including refusal to credit customer accounts or reimburse funds to customers; identity theft ; and manipulation of software to generate losing trades".
Other binary options operations were violating requirements to register with regulators.
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Mark Baldassare , Dean Bonner , Rachel Lawler , and Deja Thomas. Supported with funding from the Arjay and Frances F. Miller Foundation and the James Irvine Foundation. California voters have now received their mail ballots, and the November 8 general election has entered its final stage.
Amid rising prices and economic uncertainty—as well as deep partisan divisions over social and political issues—Californians are processing a great deal of information to help them choose state constitutional officers and state legislators and to make policy decisions about state propositions. The midterm election also features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may determine which party controls the US House.
These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues conducted from October 14 to 23 by the Public Policy Institute of California:.
Today, there is a wide partisan divide: seven in ten Democrats are optimistic about the direction of the state, while 91 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents are pessimistic. Californians are much more pessimistic about the direction of the country than they are about the direction of the state. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, as well as across regions, are pessimistic about the direction of the United States. A wide partisan divide exists: most Democrats and independents say their financial situation is about the same as a year ago, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off.
Regionally, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are about the same, while half in the Central Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between being worse off and the same. The shares saying they are worse off decline as educational attainment increases. Strong majorities across partisan groups feel negatively, but Republicans and independents are much more likely than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape.
Today, majorities across partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news about the gubernatorial election either very or fairly closely.
In the upcoming November 8 election, there will be seven state propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey only asked about three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and For each, we read the proposition number, ballot, and ballot label.
Two of the state ballot measures were also included in the September survey Propositions 27 and 30 , while Proposition 26 was not. This measure would allow in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offering sports betting make certain payments to the state to support state regulatory costs.
It also allows roulette and dice games at tribal casinos and adds a new way to enforce certain state gambling laws. Fewer than half of likely voters say the outcome of each of these state propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percent say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important, and 42 percent say the outcome of Prop 30 is very important. Today, when it comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, one in four or fewer across partisan groups say it is very important to them.
About one in three across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important to them. Fewer than half across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 30 is very important to them. When asked how they would vote if the election for the US House of Representatives were held today, 56 percent of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate.
Democratic candidates are preferred by a point margin in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a point margin in Republican-held districts. Abortion is another prominent issue in this election.
When asked about the importance of abortion rights, 61 percent of likely voters say the issue is very important in determining their vote for Congress and another 20 percent say it is somewhat important; just 17 percent say it is not too or not at all important. With the controlling party in Congress hanging in the balance, 51 percent of likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; another 29 percent are somewhat enthusiastic while 19 percent are either not too or not at all enthusiastic.
Today, Democrats and Republicans have about equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to be extremely or very enthusiastic. As Californians prepare to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the United States—and few are very satisfied.
Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters were satisfied with democracy in America.
Today, half of Democrats and about four in ten independents are satisfied, compared to about one in five Republicans. Notably, four in ten Republicans are not at all satisfied. In addition to the lack of satisfaction with the way democracy is working, Californians are divided about whether Americans of different political positions can still come together and work out their differences. Forty-nine percent are optimistic, while 46 percent are pessimistic.
Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, about four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of different political views will be able to come together. Notably, in , half or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic. Today, about eight in ten Democrats—compared to about half of independents and about one in ten Republicans—approve of Governor Newsom. Across demographic groups, about half or more approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his job.
Approval of Congress among adults has been below 40 percent for all of after seeing a brief run above 40 percent for all of Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to approve of Congress. Fewer than half across regions and demographic groups approve of Congress. Approval in March was at 44 percent for adults and 39 percent for likely voters. Across demographic groups, about half or more approve among women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos.
Views are similar across education and income groups, with just fewer than half approving. Approval in March was at 41 percent for adults and 36 percent for likely voters. Across regions, approval reaches a majority only in the San Francisco Bay Area. Across demographic groups, approval reaches a majority only among African Americans.
This map highlights the five geographic regions for which we present results; these regions account for approximately 90 percent of the state population. Residents of other geographic areas in gray are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less-populous areas are not large enough to report separately.
The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California. Coauthors of this report include survey analyst Deja Thomas, who was the project manager for this survey; associate survey director and research fellow Dean Bonner; and survey analyst Rachel Lawler. The Californians and Their Government survey is supported with funding from the Arjay and Frances F.
Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1, California adult residents, including 1, interviewed on cell phones and interviewed on landline telephones. The sample included respondents reached by calling back respondents who had previously completed an interview in PPIC Statewide Surveys in the last six months. Interviews took an average of 19 minutes to complete.
Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from October 14—23, Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. Additionally, we utilized a registration-based sample RBS of cell phone numbers for adults who are registered to vote in California. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection.
After a cell phone user was reached, the interviewer verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey e. Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called.
Additionally, we utilized a registration-based sample RBS of landline phone numbers for adults who are registered to vote in California. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals.
Accent on Languages, Inc. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt Associates used state-level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics—which used data from the National Health Interview Survey NHIS and the ACS. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey.
We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3. This means that 95 times out of , the results will be within 3.
The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1, registered voters, the sampling error is ±4. For the sampling errors of additional subgroups, please see the table at the end of this section. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing.
We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less-populous areas are not large enough to report separately.
We also present results for congressional districts currently held by Democrats or Republicans, based on residential zip code and party of the local US House member.
We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and no party preference or decline-to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated per their responses to survey questions about voter registration, previous election participation, intentions to vote this year, attention to election news, and current interest in politics.
The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to due to rounding. Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.
pdf and are available upon request through surveys ppic. October 14—23, 1, California adult residents; 1, California likely voters English, Spanish. Margin of error ±3.
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